Are You Positioned for a Slow but Real CRE Rebound 🧭

Multifamily Leads Q3 Deal Flow Recovery

Author

Anne Morgan
November 28, 2025

Hey there,

What happens when a “frozen” real estate market suddenly starts to move again? In Q3, investors poured fresh money back into U.S. commercial properties, with multifamily deals leading the way and long-quiet sectors finally showing signs of life.

Please take a moment to see why this rebound could be the first real sign that commercial real estate is finding its footing again.

📰 Upcoming in this issue

  • 🏢 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Make a Comeback

  • 🏙️ New Towers Redraw Manhattan’s Top-End Office Market

  • 🏢 CRE This Week: U.S. Market Signals a Fragile Turnaround

🏢 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Make a Comeback

Altus Group’s latest data shows investors poured $150.6 billion into U.S. commercial properties in Q3, up 23.7% from Q2 and 25.1% year over year. After a sluggish start to 2025, this rebound hints that the market may finally be finding its footing again.

Key Takeaways:

  • 📈 Strongest Turnaround Since Pre-COVID: Q3’s $150.6 billion in sales marks one of the sharpest quarterly rebounds in U.S. CRE since before the pandemic.

  • 🏘 Multifamily Leads the Charge: Multifamily deals drive the recovery, accounting for more than a third of single-asset sales and posting the fastest annual spending growth.

  • 🏭 Uneven Sector Recovery: Industrial, office, and general commercial show solid annual gains, while hospitality lags with a double-digit decline in transaction volume.

  • 💵 Momentum Into Year-End: With total 2025 volume hitting $375 billion through Q3, up more than 10% on last year, Altus sees cautious optimism returning to the market.

🏙️ New Towers Redraw Manhattan’s Top-End Office Market

A wave of ultra-prime projects like 350 Park Ave and 70 Hudson Yards is reshaping Manhattan’s office skyline. Even as weaker buildings are converted to housing, trophy towers with rents above $200 per square foot are racing ahead, attracting blue-chip tenants like Citadel and Deloitte.

Key Takeaways:

  • 🏗️ Four Mega-Projects Lead the Charge: 350 Park Ave, 70 Hudson Yards, 343 Madison Ave, and 570 Fifth Ave anchor the next generation of top-tier Manhattan offices.

  • 🌆 Supertalls Still in Question: Ambitious concepts like 175 Park Ave and potential towers at the old Pennsylvania Hotel and 346 Madison remain high profile but uncertain.

  • 💸 Rents Above $200 Become the Baseline: Developers say soaring land, construction, and financing costs mean new projects must secure leases at $200 or more per square foot.

  • 🏢 Upgrades Prove Trophy Demand: Fully leased redevelopments like Lever House and near-full 245 Park Ave show deep demand for best-in-class, amenities-rich office space.

🏢 CRE This Week: U.S. Market Signals a Fragile Turnaround

Altus Group’s latest “CRE This Week” recap weaves macro data, shutdown fallout, and sector news into a concise U.S. commercial real estate brief. Inside is a Q3 2025 surge in deals and pricing that quietly suggests the market may be turning the corner.

Key Takeaways:

  • 📊 Macro Data Sends Mixed Signals: August construction spending barely grows, manufacturing pulls back, and jobs data shows a cooling yet still supportive labor market for CRE demand.

  • 🏨 Shutdown Backlog Hits Housing and Hotels: A 43-day federal shutdown leaves affordable housing deals stalled and hotels with $1.2 billion in lost revenue and vacant room nights.

  • 🧪 STEM Hubs Drive Space Demand: STEM jobs grow at more than twice other roles, boosting office, industrial, and R&D demand in Austin, Seattle, Raleigh, Denver, and Boston.

    📈 Q3 Data Hints at Turnaround: Q3 2025 sees 45,893 non-distressed sales, $150.6 billion in volume, and broad price gains across nearly every major sector.

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Why It Matters

This upswing hints that investors are regaining confidence after a rocky stretch of higher rates, price resets, and deal fatigue. For owners, lenders, and buyers, more activity means more transparent pricing, better liquidity, and the chance to reposition portfolios rather than just waiting things out.

It is the kind of fragile turning point that can quietly mark the shift from survival mode back to planning for growth.

Catch you in the next issue,

Anne Morgan
Editor-in-Chief
Commercial Real Estate Weekly

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