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Hello, Commercial Real Estate Pros! 🏢

California’s housing market is lining up for a modest rebound in 2026 as affordability improves slightly and lending conditions loosen.

We break down C.A.R.’s outlook: a small uptick in sales, steadier prices, and why more active listings could open doors for buyers on the sidelines. A lower average 30-year rate may also ease payments. One key figure: C.A.R. projects the median home price to reach about $905,000 in 2026.

📰 Upcoming in this issue

• 🏡 California Housing Set for Modest 2026 Rebound

• 🎯 Culture, Focus & Territory: How Ariel Built Something Real

• 🎯 Break into CRE Without Cash: How Sweat Equity Built Something Real

📈 Trending news

• Santa Barbara Tops College Markets Near 2 Million

• Dallas Leads Industrial Development as Deliveries Slow

• Tokenized Real Estate Unlocks Liquidity for CRE

🏡 California Housing Set for Modest 2026 Rebound

C.A.R. forecasts a 2% sales lift and a median home price of $905,000 as lending conditions ease. Mortgage rates could drop to 6%, nudging affordability higher.

Read the full article here »

Key Takeaways:

• 📈 Sales and Prices: C.A.R. projects 274,400 sales in 2026, up 2%, with a $905,000 median price, up 3.6%.

• 🏦 Rates Ease: The average 30-year mortgage is expected to fall to 6.0% in 2026, from 6.6% in 2025, improving payments for new buyers.

• 🧮 Affordability Ticks Up: The index edges up to 18% from 17%, still near lows, leaving only about one in six households able to buy.

• 🏠 Supply and Risks: Active listings may rise nearly 10%, while insurance costs, trade tensions, and market volatility remain risks.

🎯 Culture, Focus & Territory: How Ariel Built Something Real

Shimon Shkury, founder of Ariel Property Advisors, explains how a focused, data-driven, and culture-led strategy grew a boutique brokerage into a New York powerhouse.

Watch the full video here » 

Key Takeaways:

• 🏢 Culture Matters: Core values like accountability, innovation, and personal growth sustain the firm long term.

• 🎯 Start with Territory: Mastering one area builds expertise and trust before scaling outward.

• 📈 Advisory First: Sharing data, comps, and insights establishes credibility and wins clients.

• 🤝 Hire Right and Grow Organically: Begin with trusted partners, invest in people, and offer clear growth paths.

• 👂 Leadership by Listening: Ask questions, understand client motivations, and shape solutions around real needs.

🎯 The Smart Way to Acquire Commercial Property Without Cash

Tyler Kibble took a struggling Nashville office building from 40% occupancy to nearly full without investing his own capital. He offered value instead of cash and earned ownership through sweat equity.

Watch the full video here » 

Key Takeaways:

• 🔧 Define Your Value: Identify who you help and what problem you solve before taking action.

• 🎁 Package What You Bring: Offer leasing, management, or sourcing expertise that owners need.

• 💵 Monetize Early: Be clear about fees, commissions, or equity so you are compensated as you deliver.

• 🔄 Build a Flywheel: Solve a problem, earn credibility, get compensated, and attract more deals.

Why It Matters

These shifts influence budgets, timelines, and reputation across the industry. Better visuals and immersive tours reduce production time and speed listings to market, helping capture attention and close deals.

Teams that lag in quality or tool adoption risk slower cycles and weaker brand presence. Tracking leading vendors and regions helps cut execution risk and supports credible pricing and delivery.

Catch you in the next issue,

Anne Morgan
Editor-in-Chief
Commercial Real Estate Weekly

P.S. Interested in sponsoring a future issue? Just reply to this email and I’ll send packages!