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Hello, Commercial Real Estate Pros! 🏢

After one of the sharpest rate-hike cycles in memory, commercial real estate is showing signs of a turn. New loan originations rose more than 30% year over year in the first half of 2025.

Private funds are rebuilding dry powder, capital is concentrating in the multifamily and industrial sectors, debt vehicles and data centers are gaining momentum, and REITs are reengaging the bond markets. Taken together, these signals suggest that the market is preparing for a resurgence in deal activity.

📰 Upcoming in this issue

• 💵 A New Wave of Capital Formation in US CRE

• 🏪 Why Automotive, Restaurants, and Medical Office Outperform in CRE

• 🏙️ Commercial Real Estate Summit 2025: What Leaders Are Betting On

📈 Trending news

• Investors Are Coming Back Into CRE Deals

• Should You Sell CRE in a Down Market Or Hold

• Best of Raleigh Platform Becomes Lead Engine for CRE

💵 A New Wave of Capital Formation in US CRE

Cushman & Wakefield highlights how private credit, secondaries, and recapitalizations are reshaping deal flow. Capital stacks are evolving to bridge valuation gaps.

Read the full article here »

Key Takeaways:

• 🧰 Creative Stacks: Mezzanine, preferred equity, and rescue capital are filling refinancing gaps as banks stay cautious.

• 🔄 Recaps and Secondaries: GP-led continuation funds and NAV loans extend holds, provide liquidity, and help avoid forced sales.

• 🏦 Private Credit Rises: Nonbank lenders are backing acquisitions and repositions with tighter covenants and sharper pricing.

• 🌱 Where Money Flows: Data centers, industrial, and living sectors attract the bulk of capital, while office draws targeted, basis-driven bets.

🏪 Why Automotive, Restaurants, and Medical Office Outperform in CRE

Necessity-driven categories maintain steady sales and occupancy rates when others struggle. Rent collections and renewals tend to hold firmer here.

Read the full article here »

Key Takeaways:

• 🍔 Needs Over Wants: Daily-demand spending supports traffic and occupancy, reducing requests for rent relief in downturns.

• 🧾 Lease Durability: Longer, often triple-net leases with built-in bumps generate predictable cash flow and lower landlord exposure.

• 🩺 Demographic Tailwinds: Aging populations and increasing demand for chronic care sustain clinic visits, driving outpatient expansion.

• 🚗 Omnichannel-Proof Sites: Drive-thrus, service bays, and pick-up lanes resist e-commerce substitution, protecting margins and renewals.

🏙️ Commercial Real Estate Summit 2025: What Leaders Are Betting On

Investors, developers, and lenders set expectations for the next cycle, from rate outlooks to office reuse. Expect candid views on data centers, capital costs, and housing.

Read the full article here »

Key Takeaways:

• 💸 Capital Outlook: Rate relief is expected, but underwriting remains disciplined, with focus on cash flow, basis, and clear exits.

• 🏢 Office Reuse: Conversions and retrofits expand where zoning, incentives, and layouts align, improving occupancy and liquidity.

• 🏘️ Living Sectors: Build-to-rent, student, and seniors housing attract long-horizon capital seeking steady demand and indexed rents.

• 🖥️ Digital Infrastructure: Data centers and logistics dominate the pipeline, with power, grid access, and ESG driving site selection.

Why It Matters

Capital is returning, and that shapes timing, pricing, and risk.

Suppose fundraising accelerates and debt markets remain open. In that case, asset values can stabilize more quickly, execution costs may decrease, and sponsors with ready cash will have the first opportunity to capitalize on mispriced assets.

For owners, the window for refinancing and repositioning may widen. Yet sector focus and deal structure will determine whether gains are durable or short-lived.

Catch you in the next issue,

Anne Morgan
Editor-in-Chief
Commercial Real Estate Weekly

P.S. Interested in sponsoring a future issue? Just reply to this email and I’ll send packages!